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 Post subject: FLASH goes down so fast
PostPosted: Sat May 21, 2005 11:06 am 

Joined: Tue May 17, 2005 8:53 am
Posts: 86
FLASH price drops so fast this week.

Does Samsung , Hynix increase their output quite a lot?


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 Post subject: Re:FLASH goes down so fast
PostPosted: Thu Apr 27, 2006 12:59 am 

Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2000 6:29 am
Posts: 58

There are quite a lot of Flash inventory in makers, channel.

No surprise the price will keep falling.


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 Post subject: Re:FLASH goes down so fast
PostPosted: Thu Apr 27, 2006 12:59 am 

Joined: Fri Mar 19, 2004 10:11 pm
Posts: 18
That's not the story.
Hynix's volume is not big, although they concentrate on asia market.
Inf has no 2G part yet.
Micron's 2G volume is very limited.
Powerchip?I don't think she makes Nand......even she does, the volume is neglective.

I think the right story is, it is a tradional slow season, and especially, the MP3 market is weak recently.

Price rebounded significantly on Jun.3rd.
I suppose price to become reasonable and stable before 2H of July or even earlier.


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 Post subject: Re:FLASH goes down so fast
PostPosted: Thu Apr 27, 2006 12:59 am 

Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2005 4:12 am
Posts: 92

Just saw a forecast that NAND flash won't enjoy the 40% margin later this year. Price will goes down very fast.
:(

Not a good news for Sandisk, Samsung, Toshiba.


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 Post subject: Re:FLASH goes down so fast
PostPosted: Thu Apr 27, 2006 12:59 am 

Joined: Fri Mar 19, 2004 10:11 pm
Posts: 18
To: U2
Where did you see such forecast?
Actually, such price-down should be within Samsung/Toshiba's plan.
We can't say it's a bad news to them. Lower price may stimulate more demand. And the continuous transition from 90nm to 70nm as well as from 200mm wafer to 300mm wafer, from 2Gb mono based products to 4Gb mono based products all can make up some price-down.
The 35-45%/Y price down is a normal case.


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 Post subject: Re:FLASH goes down so fast
PostPosted: Thu Apr 27, 2006 12:59 am 

Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2005 4:12 am
Posts: 92

The forecast shows the price cut will be faster than the cost down since 2H2005.

That means more than 40% annual price cut.
It cause today's Sandisk stock price goes dow almost 5%.

The scenario of NAND, DRAM oversupply in 2006 is possible.


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 Post subject: Re:FLASH goes down so fast
PostPosted: Thu Apr 27, 2006 12:59 am 

Joined: Tue May 17, 2005 8:53 am
Posts: 86
This week Samsung 2G drops around 6%.

How is next week?

8O


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 Post subject: Re:FLASH goes down so fast
PostPosted: Thu Apr 27, 2006 12:59 am 

Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2005 11:20 pm
Posts: 60

The down trend looks continue.



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 Post subject: Re:FLASH goes down so fast
PostPosted: Thu Apr 27, 2006 12:59 am 

Joined: Tue May 17, 2005 8:53 am
Posts: 86

Anyone knows what will be the bottom price of 1Gb, 2Gb Flash.

I heard that Samsung still has very good profit margin at current price.

How is hynix?


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 Post subject: When Samsung said they plan to cut price 50% this year
PostPosted: Thu Apr 27, 2006 12:59 am 

Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2004 5:39 pm
Posts: 2
they would not mean to spread the price cut evenly to a few quarters. Price cut tends to concentrate in 1,2 quarters, followed by a rebound. Quite a few reasons for the drop -- MP3 inventory overbuild, new players' NAND Flash output increase, etc.


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