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 Post subject: Taiwan DRAM backend production capacity to ease after 3Q
PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2005 8:38 am 

Joined: Tue Jun 20, 2000 6:29 am
Posts: 46

Taiwan DRAM backend production capacity to ease after 3Q

By Roger Chu, Marketing Intelligence Team, DRAMeXchange

Although the throughput of testing DRAM is on tighter supply since the third quarter of 2004 amid the ramping testing time and migration to DDR2, we believe easing signal should emerge in the fourth quarter of 2005, thanks to the continue dropping memory pricings and leading players' product mix adjustment.

Memory testing time ramps along with the progressing of trench nodes. By the time of 0.11-micron made memory enters volume production, the testing time of 0.11-micron made 256Mbit DDR is around 30% more than that of 0.13-micron's; while for the higher density 512Mbit DDR, the testing time between these two process nodes could be as large as almost one-fold.

The limited capacity ramp also pressures on the tight capacity. As most players regard DDR2 as the next DRAM generation, the investment incentive for DDR related testing equipment procurement are being constrained upon the worry of potential equipment utilization rate drop. However, the relatively higher cost of DDR2-require tester, i.e. the Advantest-made T5593, together with the uncertainties of when does DDR2 rising as mainstream, had also discouraged investment incentive.

Tracing back the memory market development in the first half of 2005, the keep escalating DDR output amid nodes progressing and DDR2 still not rising as dominant memory, had both continue to pressure on available testing capacity.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we believe that the tight testing capacity should be eased slightly. The keep declining DRAM pricings have pushed leading vendor such as Hynix Semicondutor shifting focus on NAND flash for margin concern. Local DRAM testing and packaging houses were informed about the potential drop of DDR testing orders from Hynix from May, according to market sources. Despite the recent circulated rumors about Hynix might slow down the scheduled dropping outsourcing orders amid its equipment installation schedule and strategy readjustment, local players should still see a declining DDR testing orders from Hynix before the memory maker outsourcing significant DDR2 backend production orders. Hence, we believe that the tight testing capacity at local market should be relaxed after the traditional hot season.

T5588 to serve as economic alternative of T5593 but testing capability concerns remain

In order to lower capital expenditure upon 12-inch fab construction and equipment procurement, the ramping memory backend production orders outsourced from leading memory makers including Elpidia Memories should help boosting testing demand. For DDR2 testing, vendors have to reshuffle respective deployment in line with the advancement of memory frequency. The mainstream frequency for DDR2 starts at 533MHz as 400MHz DDR and DDR2's functionality difference is limited. Present DDR tester, is incapable to perform testing works for DDR2 with the differentiation of speed function. Noted the per unit investment cost of NT$150-160 million for T5593 tester have also delay the pace of investment.

Powertech Technology Incorporated (PTI) is the most aggressive player on DDR2 testing deployment we found among testing vendors at Taiwan, thanks to the testing capacity demanded from its chief client, Elpida. ChipMOS Technologies, follows PTI's pace and has accumulate a total (with ThaiLin Semiconductor's) of nine T5593 testers through the third quarter of this year.

Advantest, at the meantime, also pose positive outlook of cost reduction for fellow testing players. The equipment specialist claims that output of T5588 should be 1.6 times more than T5593's, thus T5588 should enjoy a 20% less cost in compare with T5593's. Those testing houses who tend conservative on T5593 procurement should be stimulated to source alternative option from T5588. However, the maximum testing frequency of 800MHz of T5588 may pose another threat for equipment deployment reshuffling when memory fre

 Post subject: Re: Taiwan DRAM backend production capacity to ease after 3Q
PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2018 6:14 pm 

Joined: Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:11 pm
Posts: 4
DRAM pricing are also getting higher on a frequent basis which is also a big question mark for thesis writers services traders. By this way to get handsome amount of profit will be tough if the price situation will remain same.

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